Book Review: Profiles in Folly - History's Worst Decisions and Why They Went Wrong

Alan Axelrod's breezy and quick-reading book from 2008 covers 35 of the "worst decisions" in history, often in wartime, from 1250 BC (the Trojan horse) to 2005 (Hurricane Katrina). (The decisions are very Euro-centric.) As Axelrod himself notes, this is not "objective history," a balanced look at why decisions were made. He is particularly (if justifiably) hard on the Bush-Cheney administration, which gets tarred four times (space shuttle, Iraq war (twice), hurricane Katrina), with a glancing blow from Enron as well. 

Axelrod formats his stories well into six parts, each entitled "The Decision to _________." Specifically: Gamble and Hope; Manipulate; Leap (Without Looking); Retreat; Destroy; and Drift. While most of the stories are familiar, Axelrod's ability to cut away extraneous matter makes each a strong example of the section's theme, and reinforces the role of obstinance, stupidity, cupidity and ignorance in bad decision-making. 

I would only take exception to one account, that of Austria's decision to present its ultimatum to Serbia in 1914. Largely, I see the faulty account by Axelrod as rooted in his use of the very popular, but erroneous, Guns of August (by Barbara Tuchman), as one of only two sources.  Consequently, the severity of the ultimatum is over-stated.

I look forward to reading more of Axelrod's many books.

Book Review: Warrior Race - A History of the British at War

I should have guessed from the back cover: "telling anecdote," "storyteller," "lively anecdote," "entertaining," "anecdotes are wonderful," "personal vignettes." Yep, despite its subtitle, this is not a history, which requires thematic analysis, but a compilation of stories. General Wolfe's capture of Quebec in 1759 is here not important for its decisive effect on North American and world history, but because of the maudlin, "inspiring," portrait of his death at the climax of the battle. Similarly, Trafalgar is not the decisive check to Napoleon, but the source material for an "heroic" depiction of Admiral Nelson dying on, and at the point of, Victory. Bernard Montgomery does not figure at all for his role as the quintessential leader of Britain's armies in World War 2, but for wrongly guessing as a lieutenant in 1914 that the war would be quick and decisive.  

Author Lawrence James switches his focus back and forth as he brushes his own picture of the effect of war on Britain since Roman times. The result is several books between two covers. England's interference in Ireland is reasonably well-covered, but India gets scant coverage and Africa almost none. The RAF's continued desire for upper class officers as "natural leaders" is noted, but no discussion is made of how British officers interacted with so-called "native" troops, e.g., Indians or Africans. We do get a lot on the difficulty of maintaining discipline in the presence of barflies and camp-followers (i.e., "amateur" prostitutes) in 1940-45 UK - but not the camp-follower's experience.

The inside dustcover states James' subject as: "the question of British national identity and character." Close. I'd say English rather than British. This is a book for the Anglophile, narrowly cast, who is already well read in the chronology and history of England's wars, campaigns, battles and leaders, who wants the steady succession of vignettes from on low presented here.

And it only cost $3.27...

Well, that was fun. Or, "fun." And only took two hours. Yesterday I vacuumed out Tessa's Rav4, and afterwards she noticed that the center floor console gearshift light wouldn't light. Me: "There's a light?" Confirm that there is, remove the huge piece of plastic (which can only be done with the car in gear!), figure out how to remove the teeny LED bulb. Clearly burned out - filament is open, bulb is slightly darkened. Take it to the autoparts store, where they helpfully can't find the bulb. I find it, buy a package of two - because you have to buy two of a unique light, when the last one lasted 17 years and 190,000 miles, install the bulb, and before putting everything back, check to see if it lights.

It doesn't.

Mess around on the interwebs some more, when a tangential article gives me a "A-ha!" moment. Maybe the headlights have to be on. Yep. Reverse the above, taking out a pathetic aftermarket bracket the PO put in.

In very bright daylight I can't tell it still works, but heck - I've got a spare! (?!?) And I don't think I snapped anything.

Oh, and I found $1.98 under the console in the process.

Book review: Capital in the Twenty-First Century, by Thomas Piketty.

Piketty makes an exhaustive case for his argument that the return on capital has historically and consistently been significantly higher than the rate of growth in the economy and that, unchecked, this will lead to greater and greater concentrations of private wealth at upper 1/10^th (decile) and 1/100^th (centile) of society. At 655 pages (including the extensive and substantive endnotes), it is an exhausting study as well. His focus on Europe, while natural for a French economist, will put off many American readers who have not followed the turmoil and foibles of the Eurozone since 2008. In the end, Piketty's solution, a global (or at least widely-based) progressive tax on capital strikes me as both effective and politically impossible.

As someone who lived in a tax haven for a number of years, and examined the paucity of the nominal returns on capital hidden away there, I was most delighted by the passage on pages 521-2, where Piketty notes that bank secrecy is most plausibly explained by the haven's share in the illicit gains when its clients exploit the secrecy to avoid their fiscal obligations. Piketty calls this “outright theft.” I would compare the tax havens of the 21^st century to the pirate havens of the 17^th century – profiting at their neighbor's expense, while contributing nothing of value.

Capital is one of the most important books of 2014, but a condensed version would be more accessible, while still conveying the salient points that have contributed to a wider discussion of income inequality.

Transient Gems

Minneapolis got 2 inches (5 cm) of light, fluffy snow this afternoon. Now, under the streetlights and full moon, it is as if every surface was dusted with a thousand small fairy gems, with shimmers and reflections. Added bonus: the snow squeaks underfoot!

History without Analysis

The Month That Changed the World: July 1914, by Gordon Martel. 2014.

Gordon Martel, in his The Month That Changed the World: July 1914, has set out a chronological narrative of the actions taken by European government officials, largely those in the foreign ministries of the Great Powers, in the last week of prior to the outbreak of the Great War. In a sense, Martel's book is Luigi Albertini (The Origins of the War of 1914) writ small. Martel avoids assigning guilt for the war, and eschews judging the decisions of his characters. In his last chapter, he castigates those historians who explore the "what ifs" of 1914, decisions that if made differently may have avoided war.

Martel's book strikes me as incomplete. In focusing on the senior foreign ministry officials and heads of state, he gives the impression that foreign policy is made in a vacuum occupied solely by those gentlemen. More serious is his exclusion of any serious investigation of why Vienna persisted in its assumption that Russia would not take military action against Austria-Hungary, right up through Russian mobilization and Germany's declaration of war against Russia (even before Vienna had so declared).  A key figure in that blindness is the Austrian military Chief of Staff Conrad. Perhaps as Conrad is not a diplomat, Martel figured he was not part of his thesis.

The biggest weakness is the book's lack of analysis, of judgment. Martel has written another book, The Origins of the First World War (1987), and perhaps that book would be more satisfactory. As it is, The Month That Changed the World: July 1914 feels like research notes, carefully arranged in chronological order.

I do recommend Clark's  The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914.

Failing Kindergarten

For 25 years, my job consisted in large of part of sitting down with people and encouraging genuine dialog, GIVE and take, to settle sometimes horrendous challenges without the use of force. Maybe I'm just getting old, or perhaps just tired of getting annoyed and angry, but we're not going to make our lives better, all of our lives better, if we cling to the overly human tendency to "otherize" people we don't know, and refuse to engage in dialog, to see others (even those we do know) as just after our slice of the pie.

Let those with issues and concerns talk, truly talk, to one another. And work to make the pie bigger and shared out fairly.

I hope that's my last word on the subject.